Provincial Climate Narratives

The province experiences cycles of dry and wet years, with dry years linked to higher temperatures. It warms more rapidly than most of South Africa, with temperatures expected to rise by 2 °C between 2040 and 2060. This increase will lead to 20-30 days a month exceeding 36 °C in summer, particularly in the north.

Narrative 1: A Hotter, Drier Future
Retreating cold fronts will reduce winter rainfall, lowering annual totals. Increased subsidence from subtropical high-pressure systems will also suppress summer rainfall, leading to higher evaporation and strain on natural resources and groundwater recharge.

Narrative 2: A Hotter, Mixed Rainfall Future
To the east, intensified heat and moisture may increase summer rainfall, resulting in more intense events that could cause localized flooding and infrastructure damage.

The province experiences cycles of wetter and drier years, with drier years typically warmer. By 2040-2060, temperatures may rise by 2 °C, leading to more frequent summer hot spells that could affect crop development. Increased temperatures also heighten evaporation, causing drier soils and greater water loss from shallow farm dams. This results in water deficits for crops, irrigation, and livestock, especially during dry years, with impacts worse than the 2015/2016 drought.

Increased high pressure may reduce rainfall frequency, while enhanced moisture transport could slightly increase rainfall in the east, but not in the drier west.

The Western Cape will experience cycles of drier and wetter years over the next 20-30 years, with average temperatures rising by about 0.5 °C per decade, reaching 1.5 °C higher than historical averages by 2040-2060. Higher temperatures will increase summer hot spells and decrease winter cold spells. The effects of sub-tropical high pressure and inland heating will strengthen summer south-easter winds, raising evaporation and irrigation demands for crops. Competition for water among agriculture, industry, and urban areas will intensify, while increased winter storm intensity may lead to more heavy rainfall and flooding events.

The Eastern Cape experiences cycles of dry and wet years, with temperatures expected to rise by 1.5 °C between 2040 and 2060.

Narrative 1: A Warmer Future
Warming strengthens heat low pressure systems, leading to more intense rainfall events that impact infrastructure. Rising ocean temperatures in the Agulhas Current generate local storms, causing heavy rain and flooding, while storm surges threaten coastal infrastructure.

Narrative 2: A Warmer, Drier Future
Higher temperatures will increase summer heat spells and reduce winter cold spells, raising evaporation and irrigation demands, which could strain urban water supplies amid agricultural competition.

KwaZulu-Natal may face a significantly hotter and drier climate in the future, with temperatures rising by up to 3 °C by 2040-2060 and substantial decreases in rainfall. This scenario could lead to more heat-wave and high fire-danger days, along with increased El Niño-induced droughts, resulting in reduced yields in the forestry and sugarcane industries and worsening human health due to oppressive temperatures.

Alternatively, rainfall could increase, bringing more intense thunderstorms and flooding. While this would benefit the sugarcane and forestry sectors, it could also damage infrastructure and lead to more pests and diseases affecting crops and health.

North West may experience a significantly hotter and drier climate in the future, with temperature increases of up to 6 °C under low mitigation and drastic decreases in rainfall. This scenario is likely to lead to more frequent heat waves and high fire-danger days.

Alternatively, under high mitigation, temperatures may still rise by 4 °C in the latter half of the 21st century, but with more frequent tropical-temperate troughs bringing increased wet spells to the region.

Mpumalanga may face a significantly hotter and drier climate, with temperature increases of up to 3 °C by 2040-2060 and drastic decreases in rainfall under low mitigation. This could lead to more frequent heat waves and high fire-danger days, posing significant threats to the forestry sector due to increased wildfire risks.

Alternatively, rainfall could increase, driven by more landfalling tropical lows over the Lowveld. While this would mitigate drought challenges for forestry, it may introduce new issues with pests and pathogens affecting both forestry and agriculture, impacting tourism and infrastructure in areas like Kruger Park.

Limpopo is likely to experience a significantly hotter and drier climate, with temperature increases of up to 7 °C by the end of the century and about 4 °C by 2040-2060 under low mitigation. This may lead to more frequent heat waves and high fire-danger days, along with increased dryness and El Niño-induced droughts, making dryland agriculture and livestock production less viable.

Alternatively, some climate models suggest the province could become wetter, particularly in the Limpopo basin and escarpment, due to more intense tropical lows and cyclones, although rising temperatures would still pose challenges.

Under low mitigation, Gauteng may see temperature increases of 3-4 °C between 2040 and 2060, leading to more very hot days, heat waves, and high fire danger days, while cold nights and frost days decrease.

A Warmer Future with Reduced Water Security
Higher temperatures may lead to more frequent droughts, affecting water security and economic growth, along with intense thunderstorms that could bring hail and flash floods.

A Warmer but Water-Secure Future
Alternatively, while temperatures may rise, stable water yields in the mega-dam region and intensified thunderstorms could enhance streamflow, ensuring a relatively secure water supply despite rising temperatures.